The victims of the dotcom crash would talk about “the smart money,” this group doing that to another group to make money out of them. Narrative is a weak basis for investing. In crypto-times, people talk about whales as if there is a secret level to the game and secret methods available to those who are big enough to trade in great size, where they can’t lose, but you can. The whales won’t let the market do this, or do that, just in the same way as the smart money was dreamt to operate.
In 2015 and the beginning of 2016, when Bitcoin held solid – as solid as Bitcoin can be – shuffling around $300 per one BTC, the game was trading Altcoins in order to gain more Bitcoin. It was expected that Bitcoin would grow higher in the future (the Pygmalion effect). Having a rather volatile base asset, such as Bitcoin, raises our need to compare our portfolio performance both in terms of its Bitcoin’s value and its dollar’s value. Many traders decreased the number of Bitcoin they are holding during the past year (hey, and it wasn’t hard when Ethereum got cut 70% from its Bitcoin all-time high…) although it had a nice dollar yield. Bitcoin’s growth made a lot of money for the crypto market, causing its total market cap to increase 30 times during the last year! As traders, it is important to keep Bitcoin as your base asset, but also not to forget the dollar value, and to take profit sometimes. You should always see the bigger picture – crypto is only one tier of your investment options. There are also the stock markets, real estate, bonds and many more investment opportunities. It is important to spread the risks among the crypto portfolio, as well as in the whole household investment portfolio.
Leverage is money that a broker loans you. Unless you’re a professional trader, you should stay away from leverage until you’ve learned everything you can learn about making trades with your own money. While leverage can help you make greater profits with short cryptocurrency movements, it can also amplify your losses when the trade takes a wrong turn.
Consider Diversifying. With the above advice in mind, there is nothing worse than getting frustrated with BTC, moving to ETH / alts and missing a BTC price spike, then moving back into BTC and missing the ETH spike. This is very easy to do given the rotation, and the natural urge to “FOMO buy.” If you have some of your funds in all the coins you trade, you’ll avoid missing out on a unicorn (a term one can use to describe an odd event, like a giant price spike in a short amount of time). If you diversify, especially when prices are low across the board, you’ll avoid some of the urge to jump into one coin mid or late into a run and out of a coin just before it goes on its run. In other words, although it isn’t the most profitable tactic, diversifying is good for one’s sanity in a number of important ways.
Forks are nice, but they aren’t worth losing money over. 1 Bitcoin Cash is worth about $330 as of today in Oct 2017. 1 Bitcoin costs about $4.8k. If it cost you hundreds in losses to get a single Bitcoin Cash, it probably wasn’t worth it. In other words, don’t let excitement or fear of a fork mess with your general strategy too much. The best example of the worst that can happen with a fork is Zclassic. This event was really sad. Let is serve as a reminder of how brutal crypto can be and why chasing a fork sometimes just ins’t worth it.
Bitcoin is a volatile asset (relative to FIAT) and this fact should be taken into consideration, especially in the days when the Bitcoin value is moving sharply. Bitcoin and Altcoins have an inverse relationship in their value, i.e. when the value of Bitcoin rises then Altcoins are losing their Bitcoin value, and vice versa. When Bitcoin is volatile, our conditions for trading are kind of foggy. During fog we can’t see much ahead, so it is better to have close targets for our trades or not to trade at all.
Swing trading concerns individuals that hold a cryptocurrency over a set period of time, usually a few days or weeks. Swing traders will then attempt to determine the overall trend of their cryptocurrency holding and execute trades based on its overall upward or downward trend. The success of swing trading is largely dependent on an individual’s ability to time the market, which is an extremely difficult feat to achieve given just how quickly the cryptocurrency market can turn. Thus, swing trading is no doubt one of the more riskier trading strategies to pursue.
So I decided to take a peek at github, here's what I saw 11,200 repositories for bitcoin vs 3,563 for ethereum. **for non technical folks - repositories are where developers are storing code for projects** However, you have to note that Bitcoin was released in January 2009 and Ethereum was released in July 2015. Total volume isn't the best measure, let's take a look at the languages used.
Now, about mean reversion. When looking back at charts for cryptocurrency trading from the times gone by, most of the plays have been in the momentum category. If we have the condition for mean reversion with a range-bound environment, one should be very cautious when we have momentum. If everyone else is buying and you’re trying to sell you are going to get run over as if standing on the tracks in front of a freight train.
What would be a good portfolio for a newbie today, I just keep losing with these popular Altcoins? Are you seeing just as much significant growth today (like doubling) as before with your portfolio? I need a fresh portfolio today that has just as much potential as the day when you had bought into your Altcoins. Can you also give an idea of the percentages of the spreads you mentioned in your wallet? Also, with the influx of coins/icos, do you think alot of coins will lose value and it will be harder to find the gem amongst the rocks?