Mean reversion is where the investor assumes that the price of a coin will remain at an average price level over time. Upward trends, and downwards trends, are expected to revert back to the average over the long haul. This means you need to know the charts well and be able to figure out what the average price for the cryptocurrency you intend to trade in. When the coins are less than the estimated average that is when one wants to make a few purchases. When the price is higher than the average it is expected to drop back down to the mean price and that would be the time to sell. Of course, figuring out just when to sell is the trick, and that is where the gamble comes in.
Although I profited, I wasn’t sure if I just had a lucky month. I wanted to formalize my trading knowledge so I could do more than buy low and sell high. There had to be a real strategy to this stuff. I read as many books as I could on trading stocks and foreign exchange markets. I made a lot of mistakes. But eventually I found my rhythm and strategies.
I bought Elastic $XEL at the obscure Heat exchange. It was rather difficult discovering how to buy it because I was in this case ahead of the herd where the path was not well defined. In the end I bought it at a high price (average 31,367 Satoshis, should have got them at 25,000 Sats) as I got scammed over at Heat by a predator (Arsonic @Ars0nic on Twitter) playing the order book. We’ll see how that plays out. I think the excessive price I paid will not matter too much.
So let’s take our hypothetical 1 BTC from before and take a short position on Ethereum. We are able to borrow 2.5 BTC worth of ETH and sell it. 30 minutes later, the price of ETH has plummeted 10%. Now we can close our short position, buying back 2.5 BTC worth of ETH; except now, since the price has dropped, we are buying more ETH than what we sold. Our borrowed coin can be payed back and we take the rest as profit!
We’ve come a long ways in our path to becoming crypto traders, but there are still some very important things to learn. So far, we’ve learned how to do a fundamental analysis of a cryptocurrency, and that it’s important to do this so that we fully understand them before investing. But as traders, we need to understand what kinds of things tell us when should buy or sell. We need to understand technical analysis.
Don’t invest blindy. There are people in this world who would sell a blind person a pair of glasses if they could make money. Those same people play in the cryptocurrency markets and use every opportunity to exploit less-informed investors. They’ll tell you what to buy or claim certain coins will moon, just to increase the prices so they can exit. Due to the highly speculative nature of the cryptocurrency markets today, a good investor will always do his or her own research in order to take full responsibility for the potential investment outcome. Information coming from even the best investor is, at best, great information, but never a promise, so you can still get burned.