Knowing generally how people are behaving, how they are feeling about the coin’s activity, and the news flow (i.e. government, or big business factual news about the space) surrounding the upturn or downturn that will push it one way or the other is the key to this strategy for the trading of cryptocurrency. One can’t really tell exactly but using the right clues we can make smart decisions based on the preponderance of the evidence.
In the beginning when I was shooting for 20% gains on a trade and not knowing what to look for, I worked a lot more. Not only that but I also let my emotions control my trades. For example, I once purchased Stratis after the price dropped massively. My assumption was that on such a sharp decrease in price, it had to rebound eventually. I was wrong. The price kept diving. I had to hold the currency for 2 weeks just to secure a 35% loss instead of an 85% loss. I was constantly tuned into that chart waiting for an opportunity to sell back to Bitcoin.
Then there are the fundamental strategies. Some people say that fundamentals are the valuation of crypto, but it is challenging to value a cryptocurrency as there is no chart giving the earnings and the assets to derive a valuation from. Cryptocurrency is all about speculation, with one guy saying it’s worth a high price that reaches into the stratosphere while another says it’s worth squat.
No one actually knows how long this whole crypto thing will last but instead of losing sleep at night constantly checking token prices which have zero fundamentals behind them, I’d much rather invest in a real business that will make money whether Bitcoin prices go up or down. (Full disclosure: To satisfy my own curiosity, I do own a tiny amount of Bitcoin which won’t make me rich nor will it affect me if the whole space goes to zero).
Now, about mean reversion. When looking back at charts for cryptocurrency trading from the times gone by, most of the plays have been in the momentum category. If we have the condition for mean reversion with a range-bound environment, one should be very cautious when we have momentum. If everyone else is buying and you’re trying to sell you are going to get run over as if standing on the tracks in front of a freight train.
So how do you know if you should invest in an ICO? It’s not about science, it is important to pay attention to the level of seriousness of the project and its team. Look for the project’s website (does it look like a child has built it during computer school?), Who is the team behind the project – Are they hiding behind nicknames or proudly present themselves on their website? Pay attention to the Bitcointalk thread (does it exist at all?) and how the team members respond to technical questions. Is there a large community behind the project? Expect to see a Slack gathering its community. Watch out the amount raised: A project which had raised too little will probably will not be able to develop over time, a project which had raised huge amount – there won’t be enough investors left out there to buy coins on exchanges. And most importantly is risk management. Never put all eggs in one basket and invest too much of your portfolio in one ICO.
Taking the first option listed above, which is to buy the underlying, you become the direct holder of the digital asset. Upon purchase, the cryptocurrency is sent to your bitcoin address or account (wallet) with the exchange. From there, you can transfer the crypotocurrency to any bitcoin address or wallet address using your private key that verifies you control ownership of the asset.
UPDATE: I do not recommend paying to enter a Cryptocurrency mastermind group – I’ve tried a few and found the ROI to be disappointing. I am now focussing on growing my portfolio passively utilising a cryptocurrency trading bot, the renowned Notorious Bot. Having a bot that trades for me, without emotion, using an advanced algorithm, allows me to grow my portfolio in the background without it cutting into my time or stressing me out. You can familiarise yourself with the basics of cryptocurrency trading bots here.
ShapeShift is the leading exchange that supports a variety of cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin, Ethereum, Monero, Zcash, Dash, Dogecoin and many others. Shapeshift is great for those who want to make instant straightforward trades without signing up to an account or relying on a platform to hold their funds. ShapeShift does not allow users to purchase crypto’s with debit cards, credit cards or any other payment system. The platform has a no fiat policy and only allows for the exchange between bitcoin and the other supported cryptocurrencies. Visit the Shapeshift FAQ
Blockfolio is an extremely powerful digital currency investment tracking app that is ideal for individuals that hold an extremely diversified portfolio. Operating diverse portfolios can often be unwieldy and, due to their cumbersome nature, require constant scrutiny and management. The Blockfolio app has been specifically designed for highly diversified investors, and streamlines the process of tracking where and when you bought and sold, as well as the value of your current holdings.
TIP: A cryptocurrency wallet is a place where you store encrypted passwords that represent coins (the equivalent to storing money in a bank account). A cryptocurrency exchange is like a stock exchange or like a currency exchange in a foreign airport (a place people can trade cryptocurrency for other cryptocurrencies and fiat currencies like the US dollar). Just like if you want to trade stocks you need a bank account and access to the stock exchange, it is the same deal with cryptocurrency.
The trading strategy used is bollinger bands. (You can create bollinger bands on graphs in poloniex). The strategy is to buy when price touches lower bollinger band and sell when the price is above your bought price and also hits high bollinger band. If the price goes down and again touches lower bollinger band then invest another 25% of total investment assigned for a currency.
Bitcoin and Altcoins trading is like a raging river. It is a non-stop, rapidly changing process, more often than not accompanied by significant consequential events. If you swim against the current, you might disappear completely. In order to improve trading skills and market understanding, it is best to learn from other’s mistakes. The following article was written based on major experience in the crypto field and after having thousands of crypto trade positions over the past years. And of course, mistakes were made along the way. Shall we begin?
The second one is Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds. This investment classic, written in 1841, is the best book ever written on market psychology and will explain everything you need to know about just why cryptocurrencies have captured the imagination of the investing public. While it’s a long book, you only need to read three chapters: John Law's Mississipi Scheme, the South Sea Bubble, and Tulipomania.
To perform cryptocurrency arbitrage, you need to find an opportunity where you can buy a cryptocurrency for less than you can sell it on another exchange (minus the fees and commission). Once you’ve found one, all you need to do is simultaneously buy Bitcoin on the lower-priced exchange and sell on the higher-priced one. It’s easy to make hundreds or even thousands of dollars in just a few seconds if you have enough funds.
Don’t zoom in too much on the price trends of the moment; don’t sweat the small things. It’s easy to zoom in and get stressed when Litecoin goes from $220 to $213 (or something like that). However, these little movements only matter if you are day trading large amounts of coin relative to your total investable funds. Zoom out a bit and look at trends over larger periods of time. Don’t think of that $213 relative only to $220, think of it relative to the $100 Litecoin was at a few months back, the $400 it was at after that, and the $100 it was at just a little while ago. From that perspective, a fluctuation between $220 and $213 is nearly insignificant. I will rarely make trades on timeframes shorter than 2hr candles, and I generally am looking at 6 hr and 1 day candles, because I value my sanity and am focused on the long term trajectory of crypto. That only changes in very specific instances and with purpose. If you zoom in too much, you lose sight of overarching trends (many of which are actually stronger indicators of what is actually happening).
For myself, and most crypto traders, the goal is to increase the amount of Bitcoin we own. I don’t care about the US dollar, at least not directly. When I look at the price of a cryptocurrency, I look at it in terms of BTC. For example, right now the price of 1 ETH (Ethereum) is 0.049 BTC. My trades are based on that price, not the fact that 1 ETH is $304.
Similar to investing, diversification is king. To lower possible trading risks, it’s better to distribute your money into different cryptocurrencies. While some grow, some will fall and by not putting all your money on single bet you can balance the losses. That said, trading requires research and tracking changes and there are a lot of cryptocurrencies — which means a lot of research. Start with a few and expand slowly.
Don’t go downloading random wallets or clicking on random links, but do accept that you have to share information with exchanges. There is some malware out there, and you need to do research and be careful. However, for all you want to protect your privacy, you have to share your info with exchanges you want to use. So share what you have to and download apps as needed, but be careful and do research.
Dad advice: Aim to buy low, sell high; try not to buy high, sell low. Look at the price trend, if we are at the highest point it has been in the past 24 hours (days, weeks, etc), that is inherently riskier than buying at a short term low. It can make sense to buy as the price starts to break out, but buying after a breakout at a new high while filled with excitement is a little “irrationally exuberant.” This is to say aim to “buy the dips” and often “the best time to buy is when there’s blood in the streets… even if it is your own.” Conversely, the worst time to buy is often (but not always) right after the price has shot up and everyone is manic. If you do buy high, and it ends up dropping shortly after, consider HODLing (to “HODL” is to Hold On for Dear Life as the price goes down. It is what you do when you buy high and then neglect to set a stop or if you are going long and can’t or don’t want to cash out yet). Buying the dips and holding can be dangerous in a bear market, and it can put pressure on you to sell low if you overextend, but its still often better than FOMO buying the top. Sometimes it can be wise to sell for a loss or to buy when the price is at a local high, but knowing when this is the case requires a rather high skill level. Thus, although rules sometimes are best broken, start by aiming to buy low and sell high.Two last points 1. Knowing when to take a loss is hard, buying the dips and holding is easy. 2. The dips WILL happen, you must be patient and ward off FOMO!
EDIT: #10 Bonus (Suggested by @kerstenwirth ) — always check the ticker symbol. Ticker symbols are not universal, and may vary from exchange to exchange in rare cases. Those cases, though, can come back to bite you. For example, Bitcoin Cash trades on some exchanges as BCH, while it trades on others as BCC. BCC is also the ticker symbol for BitConnect, which was recently outted as a Ponzi Scheme. If you bought BCC under the impression was Bitcoin Cash, you would’ve lost a lot of money.