The No. 1 thing you’ll need to keep in mind when it comes to cryptocurrency trading is that the price is extremely volatile. Where certain trade techniques used in forex might take months to come to fruition, in cryptocurrency trading, it could only take hours or days. While this is beneficial when it comes to making a profit, it could also be your downfall if the price moves the other way.
Fundamental analysis is a methodology that was first conceived by the late American Investor, Benjamin Graham. It was then later popularized by Warren Buffet, currently one of the world’s more famous value investors. Fundamental analysis is a concept that is most often applied to companies, but it can just as easily apply to digital assets such as Bitcoin. Instead of metrics such as the P/E ratio, factors such as the following can be used as part of any cryptocurrency related fundamentals analysis:
Daytraders try to utilize special short-term course fluctuations. In the crypto space, this brings them profits between one and three percent. On other values they lose money. It’s almost a zero-sum game. Allegedly, good day traders average one to two percent in profit per day. We tried it and we are evidently worse than the statistical probability.
If you are going long, consider building an average position (for example via dollar cost averaging or value averaging). There is no better way to avoid making a poorly timed trade than buying incrementally instead of all at once and thereby buying an asset at its “average” price over time. If you don’t have a really solid grasp of technical indicators and the way the volatile crypto markets work, consider averaging out of positions as well. Averaging isn’t just financially conservative, it is important psychologically. Taking too big of a position at once can be emotionally difficult to deal with (and can thus lead to bad decision making) given the historic volatility of the cryptocurrency market.
It’s even crazier that traditional strategies that are used in valuing stocks don’t exactly apply to the crypto market. For instance, when valuing stocks, one can do a fundamental analysis by using ratios such as the price to earnings ratio P/E, debt ratios among others. These are concepts that don’t apply to the crypto markets. So can you value cryptos and make money in this highly volatile, but lucrative market? The answer is YES. Here are 4 tips on how to do so.
Consider Bitcoin as the base layer coin for the market as many of the exchanges price their altcoins against Bitcoin. Also, Bitcoin is often used as your base currency to get started with an exchange. What I mean by this is you will not be able to buy with your regular credit card, you will need to transfer in your Bitcoin and use that as the currency to purchase.
In stocks, it makes sense to sell losers, but that isn’t always true in crypto. In stock trading, if a company is not doing well, it can be smarter to sell their stock and buy a stock that is doing well. In crypto, big changes can happen quickly. A bearish coin can make a turnaround at any support level or based on some good news or rumors and make 100% gains in a matter of hours. If you aren’t trading frequently and aren’t at a computer 24/7, it can be a solid move to slowly build a position in a coin that isn’t doing well, but that you think is a good long-term bet. The only exception to this rule is this, if you understand TA, it is generally wise to ladder out when all the short term averages have fully crossed under the long term and in when they have crossed over. Your goal is still the same, to build a position low and hold until highs, you are just practicing some risk management in between. This added measure helps protect you from long bear markets. In other words, only sell losers if you have a logical reason and trust yourself to buy back in. If not, focus on building average positions (but plan for the worst before it gets better). Bottomline on this: Stocks move much slower than cryptos. So a loser sold now and shifted to a winner can mean months upon months of rewards. Cryptos tend to move fast and go into bear and bull mode in groups and go on runs at the blink of an eye. Sell a loser today and shift it to a winner, and trends could be changing by the time you wake up. It isn’t that you should never sell the losers and buy the winners, it is that it is trickier in crypto than it is in stocks and the same logic doesn’t apply exactly.
Only invest what you can lose. During the recent crash in January 2018, hobby-investors got burned. Reports of frustration and losses came at the cost of broken monitors, smashed laptops, and heavy monetary losses. While the rules are in more particular order of importance, it’s safe to assume that this is the most important rule, the rule to rule the rules. As soon as your money is converted into cryptocurrency, consider it lost forever. There is absolutely no guarantee you can get it back. Losses don’t simply come from dips in the market; extraordinary factors such as hacks, bugs, and government regulation can mean you’ll never see any of your money again. If you are investing money you can’t afford to lose, you need to take a step back and re-evaluate your current financial situation, because what you’re about to do is an act of desperation. This includes: using credit cards, taking out mortgages, applying for loans, or selling everything and traveling the world (as glamorous as that sounds).