Fundamental analysis is a methodology that was first conceived by the late American Investor, Benjamin Graham. It was then later popularized by Warren Buffet, currently one of the world’s more famous value investors. Fundamental analysis is a concept that is most often applied to companies, but it can just as easily apply to digital assets such as Bitcoin. Instead of metrics such as the P/E ratio, factors such as the following can be used as part of any cryptocurrency related fundamentals analysis:
TIP: The tips and tricks below shouldn’t be mistaken for professional investment advice; instead this is basic friendly advice to mull over. If you want professional investment advice, consult a fiduciary. For a shorter list that zeros in on some key points, see: 5 Tips for New Crypto Traders. See also, how to trade and invest in cryptocurrency and our crypto investing / trading starter kit.
Verification criterion- Since cryptocurrencies aren’t government regulated, trading on exchanges is posed to hacks and misuse of identities. Therefore, all the reliable exchanges will ask you for the verification of your personal identity in one or the other forms to make deposits and withdrawals. To remain on the safer side and avoid money laundering and frauds, you must opt for the step of identity verification while registering on an exchange.
So let’s take our hypothetical 1 BTC from before and take a short position on Ethereum. We are able to borrow 2.5 BTC worth of ETH and sell it. 30 minutes later, the price of ETH has plummeted 10%. Now we can close our short position, buying back 2.5 BTC worth of ETH; except now, since the price has dropped, we are buying more ETH than what we sold. Our borrowed coin can be payed back and we take the rest as profit!
Howling, expounding, hyping, none of this makes a difference to a market of any size. Markets are gigantic stochastic processes and it takes truly historic events to change or make the trends. If someone loses money investing there is no person to blame and that harsh reality needs to be embraced by anyone wishing to make money in the long term. Personifying the market warps the investor’s ability to understand the mechanism of buyers matching sellers and prices being made. “He said this, she said that” might make for tabloid journalism but it doesn’t make trends.
If your focus lies in crypto-to-crypto trading, Binance is the option you can go ahead with. Binance is ranked as one of the most popular cryptocurrency exchanges worldwide. Being natively evolved from China, it offers its features and functionality to traders worldwide. On the top of this, it’ll also provide you with impressive offerings along with an extremely low trading fee. Though the Binance platform hasn’t been too old in the field of exchanges, it has taken over and gained a rapid growth by getting listed in the top 10 cryptocurrency exchange platforms of current times. Binance holds a huge selection of altcoins with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Tether pairing.
In this complex chart, you can see the current Bitcoin prices in the upper third. The green lines indicate a rising price, red lines indicate a falling price. The thin blue threads above and below the candle-shaped price indicators are the Bollinger Band. If the candle touches the top, then the value is “overbought” and will likely fall. If it touches the bottom, then the value is “oversold” and will likely fall.
So how do you know if you should invest in an ICO? It’s not about science, it is important to pay attention to the level of seriousness of the project and its team. Look for the project’s website (does it look like a child has built it during computer school?), Who is the team behind the project – Are they hiding behind nicknames or proudly present themselves on their website? Pay attention to the Bitcointalk thread (does it exist at all?) and how the team members respond to technical questions. Is there a large community behind the project? Expect to see a Slack gathering its community. Watch out the amount raised: A project which had raised too little will probably will not be able to develop over time, a project which had raised huge amount – there won’t be enough investors left out there to buy coins on exchanges. And most importantly is risk management. Never put all eggs in one basket and invest too much of your portfolio in one ICO.
Identifying stop loss levels to minimize losses: In the order book we identify the points of support that we also analyzed before. It is likely that being supportive, massive demand (a “wall” of buyers) is present around those spots. This is the best zone to place the stop loss command, although it should be placed a little lower than the high demand zone. They will only get to our command if the sellers manage to lower the price and the “wall” of buyers breaks. The “wall” of buyers works as a sort of protection level for our command.
Developing a facility with TA takes time, but there are good, free resources available to help beginners get acquainted with the basics. As a place to start, consider checking out the free educational material on BabyPips.com. While the site is focused on forex rather than cryptocurrency, its lessons on TA are relatively applicable to day trading BTC, too.
Investors can get insights into the fund with the PentaView analysis platform. It’s basically an aggregation of the data regarding the investments and assets within the fund. The cryptocurrency space is constantly evolving and PentaView is a tool to keep users up-to-date. PentaView also gives investors a way to make suggestions to the PentaCore team.
The motivation for the investors is that the token will be traded from day one on the exchanges and would yield a nice profit to the ICO participants. In recent years, there have been many successful ICOs, both the project itself and especially in measuring the yield for investors. Coins doubled, or tripled, their value and much more in relation to their value on the crowd sale. Augur’s preliminary crowd-sale (we reported on it previously here) yielded investors a phenomenal 1,000% for their investment. Okay, but what’s the catch here? Not all the projects benefit their investors. Many ICOs proved to be complete scams, not only were they not being traded at all but some projects disappeared with the money and we have not heard from them right up to this day.
I bought Elastic $XEL at the obscure Heat exchange. It was rather difficult discovering how to buy it because I was in this case ahead of the herd where the path was not well defined. In the end I bought it at a high price (average 31,367 Satoshis, should have got them at 25,000 Sats) as I got scammed over at Heat by a predator (Arsonic @Ars0nic on Twitter) playing the order book. We’ll see how that plays out. I think the excessive price I paid will not matter too much.
As well as buying crypto using fiat currency, a centralized exchange is somewhere you can store funds and exchange the likes of Bitcoin for other coins and tokens. Examples include Coinbase, Kraken and Binance. Although there is less risk that your funds will disappear if you forget a password or your private key, it’s important to go with reputable providers who have high security standards. That’s because there have been cases where millions of dollars have disappeared from these exchanges overnight through hacking.
Let’s discuss the correct way of using the order book. A coin’s value is determined by the last executed transaction, at the junction between buyers and sellers, or according to the supply and demand forces. Those supply and demand commands are arranged in a table, better known as the order book. In crypto, it’s all about volatility. Thus, and following the previous tips given in our crypto trading article, when you enter a position it is recommended that you set the sell level to take profits. Alternatively, while aspiring to make it simultaneously, set a stop loss to minimize losses. But how will we know exactly where to place these commands? To identify both resistance and support areas, we start by analyzing the graph at the most basic level. A beginner’s technical analysis article will assist with this task. We identify points where we want to take profit (resistance levels) and simultaneously identify support levels. By referring to the order book we will find the optimal levels at which we will actually place these commands. Note that if support levels break down it is time to cut the losses.
Knowing generally how people are behaving, how they are feeling about the coin’s activity, and the news flow (i.e. government, or big business factual news about the space) surrounding the upturn or downturn that will push it one way or the other is the key to this strategy for the trading of cryptocurrency. One can’t really tell exactly but using the right clues we can make smart decisions based on the preponderance of the evidence.
Don’t go downloading random wallets or clicking on random links, but do accept that you have to share information with exchanges. There is some malware out there, and you need to do research and be careful. However, for all you want to protect your privacy, you have to share your info with exchanges you want to use. So share what you have to and download apps as needed, but be careful and do research.
Mean reversion is where the investor assumes that the price of a coin will remain at an average price level over time. Upward trends, and downwards trends, are expected to revert back to the average over the long haul. This means you need to know the charts well and be able to figure out what the average price for the cryptocurrency you intend to trade in. When the coins are less than the estimated average that is when one wants to make a few purchases. When the price is higher than the average it is expected to drop back down to the mean price and that would be the time to sell. Of course, figuring out just when to sell is the trick, and that is where the gamble comes in.
Ethereum hit the scene with the promise of using the blockchain for more than just currencies. You could build decentralized apps on top of Ethereum and even new currencies. In the summer of 2016 I decided to buy ETH at around $9. The day after I purchased Ethereum something called the DAO hack happened and the price dropped 50%. Unlike in 2011, I didn’t need the money I invested to cover any bills. I watched my Ethereum swing between $4 and $20 for about 8 months. I wondered if I could take advantage of those swings by buying when the price was low, selling when it was high, and buying back in when the price dipped again. Though I didn’t take any action on the thought, the idea lingered in my head.
For example, if it was thought that things were getting very frothy, and most of the people who were getting in were just gamblers who were buying on credit, then that might be the time to cut loose using that as your signal rather than using a technical one. On the other side, if you have cryptocurrency that is just hammered to the floor with everyone thinking it’s dead and everyone’s out of it, one can use this opportunity to make a few purchases as a long-term investment and wait for the upturn.
Dad advice: Aim to buy low, sell high; try not to buy high, sell low. Look at the price trend, if we are at the highest point it has been in the past 24 hours (days, weeks, etc), that is inherently riskier than buying at a short term low. It can make sense to buy as the price starts to break out, but buying after a breakout at a new high while filled with excitement is a little “irrationally exuberant.” This is to say aim to “buy the dips” and often “the best time to buy is when there’s blood in the streets… even if it is your own.” Conversely, the worst time to buy is often (but not always) right after the price has shot up and everyone is manic. If you do buy high, and it ends up dropping shortly after, consider HODLing (to “HODL” is to Hold On for Dear Life as the price goes down. It is what you do when you buy high and then neglect to set a stop or if you are going long and can’t or don’t want to cash out yet). Buying the dips and holding can be dangerous in a bear market, and it can put pressure on you to sell low if you overextend, but its still often better than FOMO buying the top. Sometimes it can be wise to sell for a loss or to buy when the price is at a local high, but knowing when this is the case requires a rather high skill level. Thus, although rules sometimes are best broken, start by aiming to buy low and sell high.Two last points 1. Knowing when to take a loss is hard, buying the dips and holding is easy. 2. The dips WILL happen, you must be patient and ward off FOMO!
The market is so volatile that big movements up and down are pretty common and you can capitalise on this through swing trading. I recommend choosing a group of coins to be in and then sticking to swing trading in those coins rather than jumping constantly between different cryptocurrencies – it does help to have an understanding of what different coins do and how much volatility can be expected and you will gain that understanding with time. Good luck!
How often will you buy or sell? Some people want to be day traders, but we’ve shown that holding could be the best bet. The general rule of thumb is that the longer of a time horizon you plan on holding for the less risk you incur. This rule carries over into the realm of cryptocurrency from stock investing. However, here may be times to simply cut and run. Declines due to unforeseen structural issues are an indicator to cut losses and sell out.
Before I start describing the main features of this trading platform, I would like to familiarize you with the company itself. Bitstamp is one of the oldest cryptocurrency marketplaces in the world. The company began its activity in 2011 in the UK. However, later they have opened other offices in Luxemburg and New York. Crypto exchange Bitstamp received its license in Luxemburg.
Cryptocurrencies are not all the same. Some are mined while others are created all at once and slowly released into the market. Some cryptos earn a type of interest when owned and some are tokens used by innovative development networks/platforms. Other considerations like the maximum supply of a cryptocurrency, alternative uses (other than being an exchange medium), can greatly influence its future performance.
These are what allow us to buy and sell cryptocurrencies. There are a handful of popular crypto exchanges, some of them have advantages over others. For example, some exchanges don’t allow us to deposit and withdraw using fiat currency like the U.S. dollar and euro; others aren’t available in certain countries. In this guide we will focus on two very popular exchanges, GDAX and Poloniex. GDAX gives us the ability to use our fiat currency to buy Bitcoin. Poloniex does not, but does give us a wide array of altcoins to trade. There, we’ll be using major coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum to buy the altcoins, and vice versa. Other popular exchanges such as Kraken and Bittrex offer even more coins.
Bitcoin has had phenomenal growth in its price and MCap since inception. If we exclude other cryptoassets, Bitcoin has been the best performing asset in the world every year since 2009 through to December 2017 with the exception of 2014. It has beaten all global currencies, equities, commodities, bonds, ETFs, real estate throughout that period. Bubbles are by definition short-lived, they do not keep bubbling for eight years.
Many litecoin investors followed the wrong herd last December when its founder Charlie Lee sold all of his shares in the company to avoid a conflict of interest. This should have indicated to investors that the price would not hold and would decline, Spatafora says. Instead of selling, many crypto investors bought more litecoin "like idiots when it was not sustainable," he says.
LocalBitcoin is a P2P Bitcoin exchange with buyers and sellers in thousands of cities around the world. With LocalBitcoins, you can meet up with people in your local area and buy or sell bitcoins in cash, send money through PayPal, Skrill or Dwolla or arrange to deposit cash at a bank branch. LocalBitcoins only take a commission of 1% from the sellers who set their own exchange rates. To ensure trading is secure, LocalBitcoins takes a number of precautions. To start, the platform rates each trader with a reputation rank and publicly displays past activities. Also, once a trade is requested, the money is held on LocalBitcoins’ escrow service. After the seller confirms the trade is completed the funds are released. If something does happen to go wrong, LocalBitcoins has a support and conflict resolution team to resolve conflicts between buyers and sellers. Check out LocalBitcoins FAQ
Disclaimer: This information should not be interpreted as an endorsement of cryptocurrency or any specific provider, service or offering. It is not a recommendation to trade. Cryptocurrencies are speculative, complex and involve significant risks – they are highly volatile and sensitive to secondary activity. Performance is unpredictable and past performance is no guarantee of future performance. Consider your own circumstances, and obtain your own advice, before relying on this information. You should also verify the nature of any product or service (including its legal status and relevant regulatory requirements) and consult the relevant Regulators' websites before making any decision. Finder, or the author, may have holdings in the cryptocurrencies discussed.
Let’s say on January 2, 2017, you owned $1,000 and exchanged it into euros (EUR) with another market trader at a rate of EUR€0.9565, leaving you with EUR€956.50. Then, on November 24, 2017, the value of the US dollar had fallen from EUR€0.9565 to EUR€0.8380, so you decide to exchange your euros back into US dollars. After finding someone willing to sell their US dollars for your euros, you carry out the exchange at the new price. Your EUR€956.50 is now worth $1,141.40, leaving you with a profit of a little more than 14%.
Arbitrage trading can be described as the simultaneous purchase and sale of an asset in order to profit from discrepancies in its price. In other words, arbitrage traders will purchase an asset in one market, and then sell that same asset at a higher price in another market. In the context of the cryptocurrency market, arbitrage trading might resemble something like this:
We’ve come a long ways in our path to becoming crypto traders, but there are still some very important things to learn. So far, we’ve learned how to do a fundamental analysis of a cryptocurrency, and that it’s important to do this so that we fully understand them before investing. But as traders, we need to understand what kinds of things tell us when should buy or sell. We need to understand technical analysis.
Long/Short – These are basic jargons that are being used in the trading world. When a trader is in a “Long” trade this means that they have bought something and are hoping that the price will go up to make a profit. On the other hand, when a trader is doing “Short” trades this means that the trader sells what they have in hand. Why would you want to sell a perfectly fine position (crypto)? Profit is made if you can buy for a cheaper price after you have sold it for a much higher one.
UPDATE October 1st 2018: Binance is still my favourite cryptocurrency exchange to trade on but I have changed my strategy big time over the last couple of months. I have been using a cryptocurrency trading bot to make my trades for me and have seen awesome results so far… This is the Notorious Bot – which is becoming pretty famous in Crypto circles. Using the bot reduces the time and stress involved with trading manually and maximises the potential for profit with minimal risk. Crypto trading bots are only really right for those who have a portfolio of at least 5k in cryptocurrency already, if you’re in that position have a read of this post where we review cryptocurrency trading bots and introduce you to the Notorious Bot.
Daytraders try to utilize special short-term course fluctuations. In the crypto space, this brings them profits between one and three percent. On other values they lose money. It’s almost a zero-sum game. Allegedly, good day traders average one to two percent in profit per day. We tried it and we are evidently worse than the statistical probability.