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I wrote the following simple guide to investing in Bitcoin and Crypto Assets back in Jan '17. After publishing version 3 of my strategy I felt a need to review and update it to reflect any changes in my approach, but upon review, I found very little needed changing. If you are new to Crypto, take your time to read this and the strategy, if you have any questions then feel free to get in touch, and I will do my best to get back to you.
The screenshot below is a basic representation of these concepts, where the horizontal lines roughly mark zones where price either finds a ceiling or a floor, and generally, in an uptrend, past resistance zones can become supports later on (notice how candles earlier failed to breach the second-last horizontal line, but later bounce off from the same) and in downtrends, support zones can become resistance.
Daniel Defoe, the author of Robinson Crusoe, wrote a pamphlet in 1719, “The Anatomy of Exchange Alley or, a system of stock jobbing. Proving that scandalous trade, as it is now carry'd on, to be knavish in its private practice, and treason in its publick.” Does the sentiment sound familiar? I have republished some books from the turn of the 19th century with a preface saying basically, “Do you notice the stock market is basically unchanged even after more than a 100 years of historical turmoil?” The scams and attitudes of the market and its participants are still so recognizable after over 100 years you are left to wonder if the billions spent on compliance on the worlds bourses are not a complete waste of money.
TIP: A cryptocurrency wallet is a place where you store encrypted passwords that represent coins (the equivalent to storing money in a bank account). A cryptocurrency exchange is like a stock exchange or like a currency exchange in a foreign airport (a place people can trade cryptocurrency for other cryptocurrencies and fiat currencies like the US dollar). Just like if you want to trade stocks you need a bank account and access to the stock exchange, it is the same deal with cryptocurrency.
Investors need to be more selective with presales and ICOs in 2018. Not only will most ICOs fail but if you’re not getting in during the presale, you’ve already lost. If half the tokens were sold for $1 during the presale, and the ICO price is $3, who wins when the coins hit a major exchange? While you might still turn a profit by buying at the ICO price, those who purchased at presale have a much better risk/reward profile.
Fiat Currency is still a thing; BTC isn’t legal tender; we don’t live in a Libertarian utopia; Governments and Banks aren’t as into Bitcoin as you. If you get caught up in the Bitcoin craze, it can easy to forget that the world’s governments aren’t super stoked on Bitcoin. Libertarians, Tech Geeks, Gangsters, these people are bullish on Bitcoin; world governments and banks, not so much. Last I checked, world governments had a little more power. Betting against them is a risky bet. As we move into the future states have started embracing Bitcoin and crypto, but there is no plan for a state-less state built upon digital currency. Digital currency is at best a supplemental asset class. Be realistic about the potential future here, it is bright, but it is likely not to look like your specific flavor of utopia.
BTC saw a pump last night that only lasted about 10 minutes in terms of the significant part of the move. Since then we have consolidated for 9 hours giving some of the move back. This is still healthy consolidation on the 4 hour and even a potential bull flag. Bulls are trying to hold the back test of 4 hour EMA supports. We are still in a 4 hour lower high ...
Accept that coins can go to zero, and even good coins can lose up to 80% of their value (especially against BTC). There are many coins that didn’t make it to 2018 that were once highly valued and popular. Meanwhile, even some giants of today like ETH and XRP have seen their value in BTC prices drop to depressing levels. You should prepare for this mentally and have a strategy that factors this in. If you buy the dip in ETH from .15 down, .08 may look like an excellent price, but you have to be ready for .02. ETH holders who didn’t prepare for this had a depressing June 2017 – December 2017. Heed my warning, that new coin doesn’t have to moon twice, it can go to literal zero, and even those that will moon again… they can have long seasons of stagnation in between (where they lose value against BTC for months on end). See the Crypto Graveyard and please look at the historic charts of major alts like XRP (the gap between moons is real and some coins really don’t make it).
One of the best resources for finding out about current or upcoming ICOs is here. If you see a coin that peaks your interest, be sure to be extra diligent when evaluating it. Since we have no historical data to gauge how the coin might perform, it’s very important to understand the real-world purpose of the coin. Another thing to note is whether the ICO is capped or not. Some ICO’s will be capped at a certain number, meaning that people who are late to the part, will need to wait for the coin to be offered on exchanges.
It is important investors realize not all exchanges and brokers that offer delivery of the underlying Bitcoin are created equal. Some firms have fallen victim to theft by hackers who have stolen Bitcoin belonging to clients whose money was held at the exchanges. Meanwhile, other Bitcoin exchanges have gone bankrupt (as in the case of Mt. Gox), as a result of fraud or mismanagement.
Forks are nice, but they aren’t worth losing money over. 1 Bitcoin Cash is worth about $330 as of today in Oct 2017. 1 Bitcoin costs about $4.8k. If it cost you hundreds in losses to get a single Bitcoin Cash, it probably wasn’t worth it. In other words, don’t let excitement or fear of a fork mess with your general strategy too much. The best example of the worst that can happen with a fork is Zclassic. This event was really sad. Let is serve as a reminder of how brutal crypto can be and why chasing a fork sometimes just ins’t worth it.
Hey Jhon, I haven’t found a crypto yet that is really related to my hobbies – Crossfit and backpacking – but I would actually advise steering clear of investing in things linked too closely to what you’re passionate about; whilst insider knowledge of an industry is really valuable, it’s important to trade without emotion and if your trading a coin that is linked to a great love of yours, that becomes harder.
Bull markets, bear markets, corrections, and bot manipulations. All part of the cryptocurrency trading world that has gotten people so interested in trading crypto and being part of the game that’s sure to change the investing world forever. These new markets are right now looking for new investors, but how to invest if you are a beginner? Here are some cryptocurrency trading strategy tips.
Volumes indicate the liquidity of an asset. The greater the liquidity the easier it is to buy and sell, even when there is turmoil, and the lower the Bid-Offer spread and therefore the cost of trading. You want to avoid assets with tiny liquidity as when the shit hits the fan it will be costly to exit. Bitcoin has world-class liquidity. I run a crypoasset analysis site named Blocklink.info. Here is a screen-grab of the most liquid assets in the world.
If you are going long, consider building an average position (for example via dollar cost averaging or value averaging). There is no better way to avoid making a poorly timed trade than buying incrementally instead of all at once and thereby buying an asset at its “average” price over time. If you don’t have a really solid grasp of technical indicators and the way the volatile crypto markets work, consider averaging out of positions as well. Averaging isn’t just financially conservative, it is important psychologically. Taking too big of a position at once can be emotionally difficult to deal with (and can thus lead to bad decision making) given the historic volatility of the cryptocurrency market.
Coinigy is an incredibly powerful tool for anyone who is serious about crypto trading. This video from their team explains exactly what it can do for you, but to put it in layman’s terms: It makes technical analysis a breeze and really simplifies the process of trading across several exchanges. It costs $15 a month and is at least worth trying out the the free 1 month trial to see how you like it.
Great manager, research tool, social chats, charting and just plain fun to use. And all this is in version 1.0. Yes it costs a fin, but, if you really want it and can't afford it, yet promise to give me suggestions I will get you a coupon. Just contact me. We are very proud of our first foray into the cryptocurrency space. We just know you will love this app.
Now I have my strategy that I stick to without letting my emotions interfere. I have a set of coins that I like trading so I only look at those charts. I have patterns and indicators that I look for on those charts so I can quickly flip through them. Within minutes I can set my orders, set alerts on my desired entry and exit prices, and walk away from the computer.
While all features and services of the CryptoExchange platform are free of charge, cryptocurrency transfers from or to an external cryptocurrency wallet will cost the users 0.2% of the transaction and a minimum of ฿ 0.0007 (BTC), 0.007 (ETH), Ʀ 0.03 (XRP), Ł 0.0015 (LTC), Đ 0.01 (DASH) for the main Cryptocurrencies, when transferring cryptocurrency to an external wallet. Other than this, exchanging crypto to crypto and fiat to crypto will cost the users 1% and 5% of the transaction respectively.
Use small buy-ins, and don’t margin trade or short unless you know your stuff. The smaller your bet is compared to your total investable funds, the less risk you are taking on every bet (one of many insanely important things we are covering here). Putting it all on black is tempting, but then if it comes up red, you have nothing left to invest. Live to fight another day by learning to manage your buy-in size. As a rule of thumb invest 1% or less per buy-in (yes, that small, really; losing 100% of 1% leaves you with 99%, losing 1% of 100% leaves you with 99%. Small bids offer the same bet, but with way less risk). Put reward aside and practice risk management and capital preservation until you are very experienced (and thus, by logical extension: don’t margin trade or short unless you know what you are doing, as those leveraged bets magnify your risk by their very nature). See Kelly criterion.
Back in the dotcom era many people made millions piling risk on risk as the market boomed then bubbled. When the bubble burst they lost everything. You must always look to spread your risk even when or especially when things are going great. Keeping all your money on the table and piling it up on each play will in the end break your bank. A lot of investors in crypto are feeling that pain right now and the “HODL” (a bitcoin community term referring to holding a cryptocurrency rather than selling it) incantation will not make them whole anytime soon.
As was mentioned above, there are two ways to examine investment in Altcoins – vs Bitcoin and vs the US dollar. This is a common mistake amongst those who missed the Bitcoin train, and are looking to cash in on the other altcoins. Those investors have to examine the investment dollar-wise, since they exchange US dollars or out FIAT in order to buy crypto (instead of buying with the Bitcoins they already have).
Cryptocurrencies are not all the same. Some are mined while others are created all at once and slowly released into the market. Some cryptos earn a type of interest when owned and some are tokens used by innovative development networks/platforms. Other considerations like the maximum supply of a cryptocurrency, alternative uses (other than being an exchange medium), can greatly influence its future performance.
In contrast to Forex or stock markets, crypto industry have much more risks for traders and investors including scam exchanges, hacker attacks, delisting of tokens and the others. Cryptocurrency market is volatile and coins have no underlying value meaning they may cost either $100,000 or $0 depending on demand and supply. Nobody can predict today the price of Bitcoin for several years.
Now, about mean reversion. When looking back at charts for cryptocurrency trading from the times gone by, most of the plays have been in the momentum category. If we have the condition for mean reversion with a range-bound environment, one should be very cautious when we have momentum. If everyone else is buying and you’re trying to sell you are going to get run over as if standing on the tracks in front of a freight train.
In 2015 and the beginning of 2016, when Bitcoin held solid – as solid as Bitcoin can be – shuffling around $300 per one BTC, the game was trading Altcoins in order to gain more Bitcoin. It was expected that Bitcoin would grow higher in the future (the Pygmalion effect). Having a rather volatile base asset, such as Bitcoin, raises our need to compare our portfolio performance both in terms of its Bitcoin’s value and its dollar’s value. Many traders decreased the number of Bitcoin they are holding during the past year (hey, and it wasn’t hard when Ethereum got cut 70% from its Bitcoin all-time high…) although it had a nice dollar yield. Bitcoin’s growth made a lot of money for the crypto market, causing its total market cap to increase 30 times during the last year! As traders, it is important to keep Bitcoin as your base asset, but also not to forget the dollar value, and to take profit sometimes. You should always see the bigger picture – crypto is only one tier of your investment options. There are also the stock markets, real estate, bonds and many more investment opportunities. It is important to spread the risks among the crypto portfolio, as well as in the whole household investment portfolio.
It does not matter at what point you enter the market for a coin if you believe in the long-term. Bitcoin was once expensive at $1; it was then expensive at $10; people could not believe it when it hit $100; people could not believe it when it hit $1,000 and when it hit $10,000 they called it a bubble. It could be $25,000 next year or drop back below $5,000. My only advice here is not to chase something during a parabolic upwards move because it will almost certainly come back down.
Everything is laid out in a simple step-by step system that is easy to follow. As a student, you can choose between two video courses; a basic and an advanced one. Both of the programs are designed to first give you a strong foundation and then gradually, in a logical succession, build on that knowledge. The basic program will offer you plenty of knowledge and insight to trade successfully on your own, while the advanced course takes it further, equiping you with deep understanding of advanced trading techniques and strategies.
There are some people who believe that Bitcoin is the only blockchain based protocol which has value and that all others will fail. These people are known as Bitcoin maximalists and their belief is based on economics, specifically Austrian economics, and that the technology which is great for Bitcoin is not useful for anything else. I am more open minded and believe that there are other applications of the technology which will create sustainable ecosystems but I could be proved wrong here. It is important to spend time doing your own research and building up your own view on where the technology may be used.
And remember, you don’t have to buy a whole coin — you can buy fractions of coins. The top coins are expensive, so consider buying fractions of a coin to start if you don’t have a big bankroll. It has historically been a mistake to buy only ETH and LTC because BTC costs more. You should consider which one is most likely to increase in and retain value.
Is a digital asset which is designed to act as a medium of exchange that uses encryption to secure transactions and control the creation of new currency units. Cryptocoins are a subset of digital coins. Bitcoin was created in 2009, thus becoming the first decentralised Cryptocoin. It uses cryptography to secure and verify transactions as well as to control the creation of new units of a particular cryptocurrency.
Only invest what you can lose. During the recent crash in January 2018, hobby-investors got burned. Reports of frustration and losses came at the cost of broken monitors, smashed laptops, and heavy monetary losses. While the rules are in more particular order of importance, it’s safe to assume that this is the most important rule, the rule to rule the rules. As soon as your money is converted into cryptocurrency, consider it lost forever. There is absolutely no guarantee you can get it back. Losses don’t simply come from dips in the market; extraordinary factors such as hacks, bugs, and government regulation can mean you’ll never see any of your money again. If you are investing money you can’t afford to lose, you need to take a step back and re-evaluate your current financial situation, because what you’re about to do is an act of desperation. This includes: using credit cards, taking out mortgages, applying for loans, or selling everything and traveling the world (as glamorous as that sounds).