We will see Lightning Network dramatically increase adoption in 2018. That being said, it’s really hard to predict development cycles and we could see Lightning Network growing slowly this year and only hit its stride in 2019/2020. I predict currency coins that do not adopt Lightning Network will lose market share to Bitcoin. BCH, Dash, Pivx appear particularly vulnerable.
If you think a trend will continue for a while, or if it’s too hard to predict when the price will change direction, following the trend is a more risk averse strategy. With this strategy, you trade with the trend rather than with the swings. If the market is trending up, only open long trades. If the market is falling, you only open short trades. Trend followers start trading after a trend has been established, and they exit when the trend changes. This is also called “Position Trading.”
The crypto world is a uniquely perfect environment for arbitrage. As William Belk argues here, the combination of it’s distributed nature, regulation, security, availability, and anonymity factors means that the marketplace has many inefficiencies, and that “arbitrage opportunities will continue indefinitely.” For example, some markets pay a premium for security, geographical location, or simply because they don’t know they can get it cheaper somewhere else. In some cases, the price discrepancies across different exchanges can be as much as 43%.
Ultimately, if you want to make money with crypto you have a couple of options. The easiest thing to do is to build a diversified portfolio of carefully selected coins and then to simply wait a couple of years. However, this is not the most effective way to make mad money. If you want to truly crush it at crypto, you need access to truly knowledgable people.
No, the successful trader is not me. I’ve gotten lucky a few times and I’m still refining and trying out strategies; on the other hand, I’m part of communities of people who trade on a daily basis to grow their portfolios, and while some of the results can be attributed to luck, a majority of it is based on fundamentals, good habits, and experience.