You could try this instead: Buy and sell on multiple exchanges; then, when you see those moments of indecision in the market, buy more of the cryptocurrency on the exchange with the lowest price, while simultaneously selling some on the exchange with the highest price. That way, your risk is mitigated: if the price rises, you’ve made money, and if it drops, you can buy back in at the lower price.
Suppose you’re watching BTC’s chart and notice multiple Doji candlesticks, a classic indicator of indecision in the market. You have a feeling from a few other indicators that the price is about to rise, so you buy more Bitcoin — but alas, the indecision swings the other way, and you’ve lost money (but hopefully not that much, since you’re placing stop-loss orders!).
Mean reversion is where the investor assumes that the price of a coin will remain at an average price level over time. Upward trends, and downwards trends, are expected to revert back to the average over the long haul. This means you need to know the charts well and be able to figure out what the average price for the cryptocurrency you intend to trade in. When the coins are less than the estimated average that is when one wants to make a few purchases. When the price is higher than the average it is expected to drop back down to the mean price and that would be the time to sell. Of course, figuring out just when to sell is the trick, and that is where the gamble comes in.
In stocks, it makes sense to sell losers, but that isn’t always true in crypto. In stock trading, if a company is not doing well, it can be smarter to sell their stock and buy a stock that is doing well. In crypto, big changes can happen quickly. A bearish coin can make a turnaround at any support level or based on some good news or rumors and make 100% gains in a matter of hours. If you aren’t trading frequently and aren’t at a computer 24/7, it can be a solid move to slowly build a position in a coin that isn’t doing well, but that you think is a good long-term bet. The only exception to this rule is this, if you understand TA, it is generally wise to ladder out when all the short term averages have fully crossed under the long term and in when they have crossed over. Your goal is still the same, to build a position low and hold until highs, you are just practicing some risk management in between. This added measure helps protect you from long bear markets. In other words, only sell losers if you have a logical reason and trust yourself to buy back in. If not, focus on building average positions (but plan for the worst before it gets better). Bottomline on this: Stocks move much slower than cryptos. So a loser sold now and shifted to a winner can mean months upon months of rewards. Cryptos tend to move fast and go into bear and bull mode in groups and go on runs at the blink of an eye. Sell a loser today and shift it to a winner, and trends could be changing by the time you wake up. It isn’t that you should never sell the losers and buy the winners, it is that it is trickier in crypto than it is in stocks and the same logic doesn’t apply exactly.
I am not your guru. I’m a crypto enthusiast, not a professional trader, and I make plenty of mistakes. There are a huge amount of ‘gurus’ and ‘experts’ out there but the truth is that many of them haven’t got a fucking clue what they are talking about. Opinions in cryptocurrency are like assholes, everybody’s got one. It’s extremely easy to predict the market and hell, everybody seems like an expert, when cryptocurrency is experiencing a bull run.
A beginner might prefer to trade cryptocurrency stocks on the stock market (GBTC is a trust that owns Bitcoin and sells shares of it; trading this avoids you having to trade cryptocurrency directly). The main Bitcoin stock here in 2018 is GBTC. Be aware that GBTC trades at a premium (meaning bitcoins are cheaper than buying shares of the GBTC trust), which isn’t ideal. Also, cryptocurrency trading is a 24-hour market, where the traditional stock market is not. Learn more about the GBTC Bitcoin Trust and the related pros and cons before you invest.
Fundamental analysis is a methodology that was first conceived by the late American Investor, Benjamin Graham. It was then later popularized by Warren Buffet, currently one of the world’s more famous value investors. Fundamental analysis is a concept that is most often applied to companies, but it can just as easily apply to digital assets such as Bitcoin. Instead of metrics such as the P/E ratio, factors such as the following can be used as part of any cryptocurrency related fundamentals analysis:
Especially for traders dealing with fairly large amounts, multiple, small entries and exits over a fixed period of time (dollar-cost averaging) can help obtain a good price for an asset over an extended period of time. Consider using time-weighted average price trading: specify n, t, and p such that you buy or sell n of a cryptocurrency over t hours for an average price of p.
Only invest what you can lose. During the recent crash in January 2018, hobby-investors got burned. Reports of frustration and losses came at the cost of broken monitors, smashed laptops, and heavy monetary losses. While the rules are in more particular order of importance, it’s safe to assume that this is the most important rule, the rule to rule the rules. As soon as your money is converted into cryptocurrency, consider it lost forever. There is absolutely no guarantee you can get it back. Losses don’t simply come from dips in the market; extraordinary factors such as hacks, bugs, and government regulation can mean you’ll never see any of your money again. If you are investing money you can’t afford to lose, you need to take a step back and re-evaluate your current financial situation, because what you’re about to do is an act of desperation. This includes: using credit cards, taking out mortgages, applying for loans, or selling everything and traveling the world (as glamorous as that sounds).