React to “the Mood of the Market,” But Otherwise Pick a Strategy and Stick With It. The market changes moods, and some strategies are better than others in a given market. So you’ll likely want to evolve your strategy as the market changes, and you learn. However, you’ll also likely want to avoid things like going long for most of the year, but then 9 months into your investment you start day trading when the market is down. Sometimes it can be tempting to change one’s strategy to adjust to the current market (for example if the market is bearish and trading in a tight range), however, this can get you in real trouble if you don’t make very careful moves. A long investor who starts going short will start realizing capital gains and will risk being in fiat if and when there is a recovery (recoveries, like corrections, can come on very quickly and without warning). If you do switch from long to short, make a commitment to yourself to buy back in upon a certain event occurring (like the 5 day EMA crossing the 50 day on 6 hr candles; something like that). I’ve hear countless stories of plans to buy back in, they often end with “but I didn’t,” those are the stories told in bull markets by very sad people.
It does not matter at what point you enter the market for a coin if you believe in the long-term. Bitcoin was once expensive at $1; it was then expensive at $10; people could not believe it when it hit $100; people could not believe it when it hit $1,000 and when it hit $10,000 they called it a bubble. It could be $25,000 next year or drop back below $5,000. My only advice here is not to chase something during a parabolic upwards move because it will almost certainly come back down.