Bitcoin is a volatile asset (relative to FIAT) and this fact should be taken into consideration, especially in the days when the Bitcoin value is moving sharply. Bitcoin and Altcoins have an inverse relationship in their value, i.e. when the value of Bitcoin rises then Altcoins are losing their Bitcoin value, and vice versa. When Bitcoin is volatile, our conditions for trading are kind of foggy. During fog we can’t see much ahead, so it is better to have close targets for our trades or not to trade at all.
Speaking to CNBC, the crypto trader claimed that other coins might have been overhyped as the progress in distributed ledger technology is slower than people expected. Smith said that, “They got really excited about all these other tokens and use cases. And all of the sudden you saw all of these smaller tokens, as people got excited about them, massively outperform. We got way ahead of ourselves.“
Arbitrage trading can be described as the simultaneous purchase and sale of an asset in order to profit from discrepancies in its price. In other words, arbitrage traders will purchase an asset in one market, and then sell that same asset at a higher price in another market. In the context of the cryptocurrency market, arbitrage trading might resemble something like this:
Continually doing these things can lead one to gradually cultivate a strategy: a collection of signals that one is good at recognizing and that have a consistent track record. Some traders only buy or sell once they see confluence: multiple signals indicating the same oncoming reversal or trend continuation at the same time. For instance, they might look for candlestick patterns indicating a reversal on both a short-time-interval chart (like a 15-minute chart) and on a long-time-interval chart (like a 4-hour chart).
The problem with this approach is that once you sell, you’ve actually lost money (you don’t lose until you sell), and while in some cases, cutting your losses does make sense, most coins will bounce back in days, if not hours, and then the same people, seeing a surge, buy back at higher prices, only to repeat the cycle. Buying high and selling low is a one-way ticket to going broke.
If you are going long, consider building an average position (for example via dollar cost averaging or value averaging). There is no better way to avoid making a poorly timed trade than buying incrementally instead of all at once and thereby buying an asset at its “average” price over time. If you don’t have a really solid grasp of technical indicators and the way the volatile crypto markets work, consider averaging out of positions as well. Averaging isn’t just financially conservative, it is important psychologically. Taking too big of a position at once can be emotionally difficult to deal with (and can thus lead to bad decision making) given the historic volatility of the cryptocurrency market.
The screenshot below is a basic representation of these concepts, where the horizontal lines roughly mark zones where price either finds a ceiling or a floor, and generally, in an uptrend, past resistance zones can become supports later on (notice how candles earlier failed to breach the second-last horizontal line, but later bounce off from the same) and in downtrends, support zones can become resistance.
Never put all your eggs in one basket. Diversify. While the potential to earn more is increased with the amount of money you invest into a coin, the potential to lose more is also magnified. Another way to think about it is to look at the cryptocurrency market as a whole; if you believe that this is just the beginning, then more than likely the entire market cap of cryptocurrencies will increase. What are the chances that this market cap increase will be entirely driven by one coin vs. being driven by many coins? The best way to safely capture the overall growth of cryptocurrency is to diversify and reap the benefits of growth from multiple coins. Also, fun fact — Between January 2016 and January 2018, Corgicoin has increased by 60,000x, and Verge has increased by 13,000x. During the same period, Bitcoin has increased by 34x. While you would have gotten impressive gains from Bitcoin, expanding into other coins could have landed you potentially larger ones.