We will see Lightning Network dramatically increase adoption in 2018. That being said, it’s really hard to predict development cycles and we could see Lightning Network growing slowly this year and only hit its stride in 2019/2020. I predict currency coins that do not adopt Lightning Network will lose market share to Bitcoin. BCH, Dash, Pivx appear particularly vulnerable.
Bitcoin is a volatile asset (relative to FIAT) and this fact should be taken into consideration, especially in the days when the Bitcoin value is moving sharply. Bitcoin and Altcoins have an inverse relationship in their value, i.e. when the value of Bitcoin rises then Altcoins are losing their Bitcoin value, and vice versa. When Bitcoin is volatile, our conditions for trading are kind of foggy. During fog we can’t see much ahead, so it is better to have close targets for our trades or not to trade at all.
No coin will go up forever, even Bitcoin has very good days, and then some really rough ones. The crypto space is ever-changing and evolving, with new opportunities coming up every day. If you believe in a coin, holding it for long-term returns is a good approach, but if you are looking to make money by trading, you cannot have emotional attachments with any coin.
Update 1st October 2018: The cryptocurrency market has been volatile as ever over the last 6 months. Unless you are a skilled trader, it is harder to make money in a bear market than in a bull market – and we have been in a bear market for some time now. Personally, I have stopped trading and I am now focussing on growing my portfolio passively using a cryptocurrency trading bot – you can find out more about this here. If you are new to crypto, read on!
Now, of course, you will want to do your due diligence and make sure that you know what the market conditions are first, and what the previous price levels have been when trying to predict the appropriate time to get out. Knowing when to get out is the most important thing about this type of strategy. So, apparently, timing is everything here, and the more you know the better off you will be when judging for the appropriate times to buy or sell so that you have the greatest opportunity for the biggest profit.
Know when to take a loss. Nothing is less fun than taking a loss, but if you are going short in BTC and you haven’t set a stop, sometimes it makes more sense to take a loss and wait for a better price than it does to suddenly start going long. The best way to know when to hold ’em and or fold ’em is some basic TA on longer term charts (I will use things like MACD on 6hr – 12hr – 1 day candles to confirm trends) paired with unwavering discipline.
A long-term investment is one where you expect a cryptocurrency to perform better over a longer period of time. Simple! Normally, the minimum time for long-term investment is 6 months to 1 year. Although, some people plan to hold onto their investments for 5-10+ years. It’s up to you how you choose to invest; you can either make your full investment in one go, or you can invest at different times.
This learning program will make you completely self-sufficient. There will be no need for you to pay for another course or to subscribe to different trading groups and live trade rooms. There is a ton of groups and individuals out there who are selling or giving away trade signals on their sites, Twitter, forums, etc. All these signals and tips can be useless or even very harmful, if you don't know how to do your own research. For instance, a fresh tweet saying it's time to buy a certain altcoin might not only be old news. There's also a chance it was written because the author wants to actually dump the coin, and he needs people to buy and raise its value at the same time he is selling it.
An unbreakable rule in trading says that you should never involve your emotions in trading. This is a basic rule for anyone who trades over any term, but especially for the ones who trade for the short term. Imagine buying Bitcoin according to the DCA strategy: Let’s say the Bitcoin price had crashed by 40% in three days. Now what? Obviously it is the time to buy a second portion of the coin (according to DCA) and average the initial trading entry price. But instead, almost everyone I know got “cold feet” exactly at the “terrifying” moment of decrease and had not completed the purchase of the second share. Why does it happen to us? One word – emotion. Emotions, in this case – fear of loss, affects us and completely disturbs our plan of action. If you are one of those (yes, the majority) who won’t buy the second share in the example above – you should consider your future as a trader, a crypto trader in particular. Getting over your emotions is also important after an unsuccessful trade or after you have sold a coin which is sky rocketing just after you sold it (FOMO). To sum up, don’t regret profit you’ve missed and don’t feel guilty about lost trades. Set yourselves a plan of action together with a set of goals, and act accordingly – as if you were a pre-programmed computer. Human beings are not rational creatures.
As you know, the focus of this guide is all about trading cryptocurrencies, but there are other ways to get a hand in the pot. Some people choose to buy a cryptocurrency and forget about it, much like you would do with some stock in say, Amazon. Other’s are actually investing through the stock market via the Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC). If you are a firm believer in the future of Bitcoin, both are perfectly fine ways to go about it.
Another thing I need to make clear is the type of trading I do - day trading. My base currency is Bitcoin, which I use to buy Altcoins like Ethereum, ZCash, Golem, etc. When I make a trade to buy an Altcoin with BTC, I could end up selling the Altcoin back for BTC within a matter of minutes or hours. All of my profits are converted back into BTC at the end of each trading day.
In the first week of January 2018 popular exchanges like Binance, Bitfinex, Bittrex have shut down new users registrations to maintain the quality of exchanges. This is when the Gate.io name popped up and after trying for almost 1 month, this exchange seemed to be a solid pick for 2018. The mobile app is fully functional and lets you also add fiat money using AliPay account. You can trade BTC, ETH, USDT, QTUM for any other crypto of your choice.
Back in the dotcom era many people made millions piling risk on risk as the market boomed then bubbled. When the bubble burst they lost everything. You must always look to spread your risk even when or especially when things are going great. Keeping all your money on the table and piling it up on each play will in the end break your bank. A lot of investors in crypto are feeling that pain right now and the “HODL” (a bitcoin community term referring to holding a cryptocurrency rather than selling it) incantation will not make them whole anytime soon.
Wallets are a good example of this. Many cryptocurrency storage solutions — for example, hardware wallets like the Trezor and Ledger — are designed with maximum security in mind (with good reason!). But these aren’t meant to be used with day trading: the amount of time it takes to sign and confirm transactions from wallets can delay trades that you’re trying to perfectly time.
This link explains how to use moving average analysis to identify potential opportunities. The short version is that if we see the EMA cross above the SMA and begin shooting upwards, we know that the price is beginning to beat the trend, forcing the trend to change directions. This can make these cross points a good entry point for a trade. Similarly, a good exit point for a trade is usually when the EMA crosses below the SMA.
No, the successful trader is not me. I’ve gotten lucky a few times and I’m still refining and trying out strategies; on the other hand, I’m part of communities of people who trade on a daily basis to grow their portfolios, and while some of the results can be attributed to luck, a majority of it is based on fundamentals, good habits, and experience.