Fundamental analysis is a methodology that was first conceived by the late American Investor, Benjamin Graham. It was then later popularized by Warren Buffet, currently one of the world’s more famous value investors. Fundamental analysis is a concept that is most often applied to companies, but it can just as easily apply to digital assets such as Bitcoin. Instead of metrics such as the P/E ratio, factors such as the following can be used as part of any cryptocurrency related fundamentals analysis:
Trading on low-volume days in the market could incur substantial slippage. People who make trades — especially large trades — on low-volume days often will not find many partners on the other side of the order book willing to make that trade. The result is that they could end up paying much more for the trade than expected, incurring slippage in the process.
Cryptocurrency is volatile! There is always the chance that the market will crash, or that you will face some other catastrophe. Cryptocurrency isn’t a centrally controlled and regulated fiat currency. If you lose a coin, or someone cheats you, or your account gets hacked, there is nothing you can do about it (which is one reason why you want to have 2-factor authentication set-up).
Update 1st October 2018: The cryptocurrency market has been volatile as ever over the last 6 months. Unless you are a skilled trader, it is harder to make money in a bear market than in a bull market – and we have been in a bear market for some time now. Personally, I have stopped trading and I am now focussing on growing my portfolio passively using a cryptocurrency trading bot – you can find out more about this here. If you are new to crypto, read on!
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Let’s discuss the correct way of using the order book. A coin’s value is determined by the last executed transaction, at the junction between buyers and sellers, or according to the supply and demand forces. Those supply and demand commands are arranged in a table, better known as the order book. In crypto, it’s all about volatility. Thus, and following the previous tips given in our crypto trading article, when you enter a position it is recommended that you set the sell level to take profits. Alternatively, while aspiring to make it simultaneously, set a stop loss to minimize losses. But how will we know exactly where to place these commands? To identify both resistance and support areas, we start by analyzing the graph at the most basic level. A beginner’s technical analysis article will assist with this task. We identify points where we want to take profit (resistance levels) and simultaneously identify support levels. By referring to the order book we will find the optimal levels at which we will actually place these commands. Note that if support levels break down it is time to cut the losses.
For takers, fees range from 0.10 to 0.25%. There are no fees for withdrawals beyond the transaction fee required by the network. One of the unique tools on the Poloniex platform is the chat box which is constantly filled with user help and just about everything. Any user can write almost anything but inappropriate comments are eventually deleted by moderators. It can sometimes be hard to distinguish the good advice from the bad, but the Chatbox is a great tool that will keep you engaged.
Maybe you remember when, thanks to The Wall Street Journal, everyone thought the SEC was going to meet on May 7th to decide whether or not Ethereum (ETH) was a security. If you had taken up a large position in ETH prior to the 7th, you would have been disappointed when the price fell from ~$793 USD to ~$743 USD amidst news that there actually was no meeting after all.
This is probably the most important factor to look at when deciding whether a cryptocurrency will survive into the future or not. Some cryptocurrencies, apart from acting as coins and trading assets, also provide platforms, serve as the fastest means to move money across the globe, try to solve a certain problem in society or in the cryptocurrency ecosystem, and do a lot more.
Hey, Will, I like this! Thanx for the info. I’m somewhat new to cryptos but not to investing — my Dad invested in the stock market since I was a kid and as an adult I was a registered investment advisor representative for a large US institution. One conclusion I’ve come to is that the skills and approach for crypto investing are no different than those for the stock market. I use the same strategies and analyses I use for stocks and etf’s and feel completely at home in the crypto market. Yes, I deal with more brokerage accounts, etc., but the principles are the same.
For any significant investment in the space, I’m using the pick-and-shovel strategy to gain crypto exposure in the portfolio. Which “play” am I investing in? After much research and networking and grovelling, I’ve finally found a very good target which is ironically, a mining operation. I’ve been looking for an exchange play but haven’t found one yet…(so if any of you know of a solid one looking for funding, feel free to lob it my way :-))
Let’s say on January 2, 2017, you owned $1,000 and exchanged it into euros (EUR) with another market trader at a rate of EUR€0.9565, leaving you with EUR€956.50. Then, on November 24, 2017, the value of the US dollar had fallen from EUR€0.9565 to EUR€0.8380, so you decide to exchange your euros back into US dollars. After finding someone willing to sell their US dollars for your euros, you carry out the exchange at the new price. Your EUR€956.50 is now worth $1,141.40, leaving you with a profit of a little more than 14%.
Arbitrage trading can be described as the simultaneous purchase and sale of an asset in order to profit from discrepancies in its price. In other words, arbitrage traders will purchase an asset in one market, and then sell that same asset at a higher price in another market. In the context of the cryptocurrency market, arbitrage trading might resemble something like this:
Blockfolio also provides complex and powerful analytical and charting tools that make the tracking price trends of the currencies you’re investing in seamless and practical. The app can also be programmed to gather together the latest news stories from your favorite cryptocurrency news websites and sources and present them in a comprehensive array.
Founded in 2014, Poloniex is one of the world’s leading cryptocurrency exchanges. The exchange offers a secure trading environment with more than 100 different Bitcoin cryptocurrency pairings and advanced tools and data analysis for advanced traders. As one of the most popular trading platforms with the highest trading volumes, users will always be able to close a trade position. Poloniex employs a volume-tiered, maker-taker fee schedule for all trades so fees are different depending on if you are the maker or the taker. For makers, fees range from 0 to 0.15%, depending on the amount traded.
If you have an account on Poloniex.com or Bittrex.com (and other crypto exchange sites) you can use their API with TabTrader to easily trade and monitor prices on your phone. It's important to me that the app connects to Poloniex and Bittrex because these exchanges have good volume. And they're pretty credible. TabTrader supports other major exchanges too :)
We will see Lightning Network dramatically increase adoption in 2018. That being said, it’s really hard to predict development cycles and we could see Lightning Network growing slowly this year and only hit its stride in 2019/2020. I predict currency coins that do not adopt Lightning Network will lose market share to Bitcoin. BCH, Dash, Pivx appear particularly vulnerable.
Not all traders make gains from trading, since this is a zero-sum game (for everyone who benefits someone else loses on the other side).The Altcoins market is driven by large whales (yes, the same ones responsible for placing huge blocks of hundreds of Bitcoins on the order book). The whales are just waiting patiently for innocent little fish like us to make mistakes. Even if you aspire to trade on a daily basis, sometimes it is better not to earn and do nothing, instead of jumping into the rushing water and exposing your coins to losses. From my experience, there are days where you only keep your profits by not trading at all.
Altcoins and Bitcoins tend to react to each other. Sometimes they do the opposite of each other and sometimes they do exactly the same thing. It is not rare to see Bitcoin go down while alts go up (and vice versa). This is because almost everyone who has alts has Bitcoin, so they tend to move out of Bitcoin when it goes down and move into alts (and vice versa). Almost just as often as this is the case it isn’t the case. Many times, all coins will go up or down together (generally following Bitcoin’s lead). This dance often results in Bitcoin outperforming altcoins, however every x months we will see an alt boom where alts outpace Bitcoin quickly. If you can time that, great. Try to spot it coming and there is big money to be made. Meanwhile, alts can be tricky to just HODL, as they tend to lose value against fiat and BTC in the off season. Learn more about the relationship between Bitcoin and Alts. In a word, alts are generally more volatile than Bitcoin.
If you think a trend will continue for a while, or if it’s too hard to predict when the price will change direction, following the trend is a more risk averse strategy. With this strategy, you trade with the trend rather than with the swings. If the market is trending up, only open long trades. If the market is falling, you only open short trades. Trend followers start trading after a trend has been established, and they exit when the trend changes. This is also called “Position Trading.”
NEO: Apart from being a cryptocurrency, NEO is known for its niche smart contract feature just like Ethereum’s. Smart Economy, Digital Assets Storage and Exchange Automation are achieved through Neo’s smart contract. And coming from China, if it gets to receive the welcoming use that the Chinese always give to their startups, it’s bound to make it big in the industry. It also ensures digital identity anonymity and achieves consensus through the Delegated Byzantine Fault Tolerance
Take profits. Some investors think “taking profits” is a dirty phrase, but it is a rather conservative strategy none-the-less. Taking profits can result in you making less money than you would have if you did nothing and just “let it ride”… but that is only true if Bitcoin goes up over the long term. If you have hefty profits, consider taking them off the table, and then waiting for a lower price in the future. Worst case, you can buy back in at a higher price later (leaving some potential profits on the table). TIP: If a coin just went up 400%… consider taking some profits. Cryptocurrency almost always corrects at some point after a big run. I personally would say HODLing after making 400% gains is called GREED. I won’t ever sell my full stack in one chunk, but I’m going to start averaging out when the MACD turns bearish after a 400% – 1,000% run if the run was somewhat organic. If the run was the result of a pump and dump, then I will likely take it all off the table quickly. Pump and dumps are frustrating events, like I said, watch out for manipulation.
BTC saw a pump last night that only lasted about 10 minutes in terms of the significant part of the move. Since then we have consolidated for 9 hours giving some of the move back. This is still healthy consolidation on the 4 hour and even a potential bull flag. Bulls are trying to hold the back test of 4 hour EMA supports. We are still in a 4 hour lower high ...
Accept that coins can go to zero, and even good coins can lose up to 80% of their value (especially against BTC). There are many coins that didn’t make it to 2018 that were once highly valued and popular. Meanwhile, even some giants of today like ETH and XRP have seen their value in BTC prices drop to depressing levels. You should prepare for this mentally and have a strategy that factors this in. If you buy the dip in ETH from .15 down, .08 may look like an excellent price, but you have to be ready for .02. ETH holders who didn’t prepare for this had a depressing June 2017 – December 2017. Heed my warning, that new coin doesn’t have to moon twice, it can go to literal zero, and even those that will moon again… they can have long seasons of stagnation in between (where they lose value against BTC for months on end). See the Crypto Graveyard and please look at the historic charts of major alts like XRP (the gap between moons is real and some coins really don’t make it).
Almost everyone joins Telegram groups and follows Twitter traders for signals, and there is nothing wrong with that, as long as you do your own research. There is no shortage of ‘shilling’ (promoting coins and market moves for personal gain) across all social mediums, and you will come across tons of people claiming that a particular coin is going to ‘moon’ soon or give 10x gains.
There are many groups on Facebook where you can find likeminded folks who will happily talk crypto all day but the problem is that 99% of these groups are filled with people who have only a very basic understanding of cryptocurrency and the knowledge available here is not particularly strong. I have recently left almost every single group on Facebook as, in my opinion, they are largely filled with FUD.
Lots of traders use bots (you might want to as well if you have the chops). To the next point, lots of traders use trading bots. Some are white hat; some will try to get you to make bad trades. Keep an eye out for bots. If you are using a bot, be careful, there are bots designed to exploit poorly programmed bots. In general, if you don’t have a solid grasp of TA and crypto trading, skip the bot. They are only as useful as the strategies they run.
I think the simplest place to buy, sell, and store coins is Coinbase (and our tutorial below will help you get set up with that), but you can only buy, sell, and store Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Bitcoin Cash on Coinbase. If you are serious about trading cryptocurrency, you’ll need another exchange like Coinbase’s GDAX, Bittrex, Binance, or Kraken (and you’ll likely want to find a wallet to store your coins in). See a top 5 list of cryptocurrency exchanges and the Best Bitcoin Exchanges ranked (those above are my picks).
Ethereum: Well, the father of platform-oriented cryptocurrencies. Being a cryptocurrency, Ethereum does more to the ecosystem than almost all the others in the market. It’s Solidity program allows for excellent smart contract programming, it is also a platform where Decentralized Apps are built and deployed, and many leaders in the blockchain space, including IBM have used Ethereum’s smart contracts and platform to build and deploy applications.
On top of that, the cryptocurrency market travels at lightspeed compared to other markets. New coins enter the market on a daily basis (in 2016, there were about 550 different coins, today there are about 1,500), and each one has news every day. I’m not doubting your ability to consume and analyze news, but that level of information bombardment will always be more effectively consumed as a group. In these communities, you’ll see members link news and relevant articles about coins you’ve invested in and coins you’ve never heard of. The community will definitely expand your knowledge much faster than doing it all yourself.