So far, everything we’ve discussed has involved taking a long position on a coin. That is, our focus has been buying a coin at a lower price than what we think we will be able to sell it at later. What if we have some indication that leads us to believe that the value of a coin is about to decrease? In this case, we could take a short position, which is the same technique that made some people boatloads of money during the 2008-2009 housing bubble.
Bitcoin isn’t just an unknown commodity: it will always be an unknown commodity. Bitcoin doesn’t have the fundamentals that investors typically use to analyze an asset. Most stocks or bonds can be analyzed based on some trait of the instrument. Stocks have P/E ratios and dividends, for example, while bonds have return percentages. Bitcoin has no fundamentals that can be easily measured.
TIP: There are a few sides to cryptocurrency. 1. you can trade and invest in it, 2. you can use it for transactions (anywhere a coin type is accepted), 3. you can break out a graphics processing unit and some software and mine coins (see how to mine coins). Those are all valid and interesting, but with that in mind, this page is focused on “trading” cryptocurrency (and therefore also investing in it). With that said, even if you want to do the other things with cryptocurrencies, you still need to be set up for trading.
A lot of people in the markets love tips. Ignore them, they will lead you astray. All information is incomplete, all trends can reverse at any time, don’t listen to tips, don’t take advice, don’t believe you are right, or that someone else knows anything. Instead, soak up every shred of information you can and filter it down and try to make sense of it. If it doesn’t make sense then leave that investment alone. Stock markets, commodity markets, crypto markets, they will all strip you bare if you let yourself be lead. If you are not ready to go it alone, then don’t go at all.
The motivation for the investors is that the token will be traded from day one on the exchanges and would yield a nice profit to the ICO participants. In recent years, there have been many successful ICOs, both the project itself and especially in measuring the yield for investors. Coins doubled, or tripled, their value and much more in relation to their value on the crowd sale. Augur’s preliminary crowd-sale (we reported on it previously here) yielded investors a phenomenal 1,000% for their investment. Okay, but what’s the catch here? Not all the projects benefit their investors. Many ICOs proved to be complete scams, not only were they not being traded at all but some projects disappeared with the money and we have not heard from them right up to this day.
Read Part 2 of BTCManager’s series, ‘A Guide to Trading Cryptocurrency,’ here. In Part 3, we look again at another complicated trading style that focuses on your inner self and human behavior. Markets are chaotic. Cryptocurrency markets, even more so. But just because the markets are random and sentiment can shift rapidly does not mean you cannot profit from fluctuations…
Notice the small bull run. Now imagine we had decided to buy Ethereum somewhere around that dotted line and just before 8pm. We saw it tick up after a string of bearish candles, and for whatever reason, thought it might continue it’s way upward. To minimize our losses (remember our goal is minimize losses and maximize gains), we set a stop order right away. We’ll set it near the bottom of those last couple bearish candles (about $474). Now as we watched the price work it’s way up, we would continue to raise our stop price. To do this, we would go to our open orders (every exchange will show this), and click cancel on the stop limit that we had just set. Shortly after 8pm, we might’ve had a stop at $480 that would’ve been triggered. If you’re stop limit is triggered and the signs point to the trend continuing you’re able to buy back in with a profit already in your pocket.
Developing a facility with TA takes time, but there are good, free resources available to help beginners get acquainted with the basics. As a place to start, consider checking out the free educational material on BabyPips.com. While the site is focused on forex rather than cryptocurrency, its lessons on TA are relatively applicable to day trading BTC, too.
Bitcoin tends to find resistance at whole number points. For example, at $4.8k and $4.85k. It also absolutely loves to react at whole numbers like $10k and either drop or run. If you know you want to take profits soon or buy soon, keep an eye on those whole numbers. If you feel like the run must almost be over, pull your profits before the whole number is reached!
No, the successful trader is not me. I’ve gotten lucky a few times and I’m still refining and trying out strategies; on the other hand, I’m part of communities of people who trade on a daily basis to grow their portfolios, and while some of the results can be attributed to luck, a majority of it is based on fundamentals, good habits, and experience.